Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
